2. The Economics of Mobile User Acquisition in 2025–2026 ### 2.1 Global Spend and Growth Trajectory Global app marketing spend on user acquisition reached **$78 billion in 2025**, up 13% year-over-year (AppsFlyer). The growth was driven entirely by iOS, which surged 35%, while Android remained flat at -1%. This divergence reflects the premium that advertisers continue to place on iOS users, who typically show higher engagement and lifetime value. The mobile UA market is projected to reach **$45 billion by 2033** (Market Research Forecast), with the broader U.S. mobile advertising market expected to grow from $78.5 billion in 2025 to $245 billion by 2034 (IMARC Group), at a CAGR of 13.09%. **Key spend dynamics:** | Metric | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Global UA spend (2025) | $78 billion | AppsFlyer | | Global remarketing spend (2025) | $31 billion | AppsFlyer | | Remarketing share of total spend | 29% (up from 25%) | AppsFlyer | | US share of global UA spend | 42% | AppsFlyer | | Non-gaming UA spend (2025) | $53 billion (+18% YoY) | AppsFlyer | | Gaming UA spend (2025) | $25 billion (+3% YoY) | AppsFlyer | | Shopping app UA spend growth (iOS) | +123% YoY | AppsFlyer | The data tells a clear story: **non-gaming is driving the growth**, with shopping apps (powered significantly by China-based eCommerce) showing explosive gains. Gaming, once the dominant UA category, has flattened — a structural shift that reflects both market saturation and the maturation of alternative entertainment surfaces (streaming, social, AI apps). ### 2.2 Cost Per Install by Platform and Category CPI continues to climb across every major platform: | Category | iOS CPI | Android CPI | Source | |---|---|---|---| | Overall average (2024–2025) | $4.70 | $3.40 | Business of Apps | | Gaming (2024) | $4.83 | — | Liftoff | | Shopping (North America) | $2.50–$5.00 | $1.42–$2.24 | Statista/Mapendo | | Fintech | $2.50–$6.00 | $2.09 | Liftoff/Adjust | | Instagram ads (2024) | $1.75–$4.50 | — | WordStream | **Regional CPI benchmarks** (Business of Apps): - **North America**: Highest globally, $2.50–$5.00+ per install - **EMEA**: $1.03 per install (avg), range $1.75–$4.50 - **APAC**: $0.93 per install (avg) - **Latin America**: $0.34 per install (avg) — lowest globally The implication for founders is clear: **geographic diversification is a lever for cost efficiency.** Teams that test and scale in LATAM or APAC before entering expensive Western markets can build creative learnings and unit economic proof points at a fraction of the cost. ### 2.3 The CAC Problem in Context Customer acquisition costs have risen **222% over the past decade** (SimplicityDX), driven by: - Apple's ATT deprecating IDFA, causing Meta's CPI on iOS to spike from $3.75 (2020) to $15 (2021) before partially stabilizing - The demise of third-party cookies and stricter privacy legislation (GDPR, CCPA) - Increasing competition and saturation in walled gardens (Meta, TikTok, Google) - The rising quality bar for creative — generic advertising no longer converts The economic pressure is compounded by churn: **apps lose up to 80% of users within three days** of install. This means that a significant portion of UA spend is effectively wasted on users who never return. The response from the market has been a decisive shift from install-volume optimization to **retention-first, quality-optimized acquisition.** ---